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We should remember Nobel laureate Robert Merton's warning that "models are not at all precise in their application to the complex real world," argue Athula Alwis and Dave Ingram
Watson Wyatt has published its initial analysis of the 1,100 pages of documents put out last week.
Signs of recovery in the financial markets and the lack of big underwriting losses helped
But CEIOPS doubts it will regain its 2007 levels
Michel Dacorogna, the company's modelling chief, tells Jessica Baylis the role of the risk manager is to think of the improbable and then work out ways of allowing for this in your risk management.
Postponement of the CEIOPS' paper and regulatory vagueness add to confusion over how partial internal models might be used, yet these could be the choice of the majority of insurers. Jessica Baylis reports.
Consultation paper postponed to end of year
Later his role will extend across the whole group
Individual risks like volatility aren't the problem, argues Milliman's Neil Cantle. The way they combine is.
It should form a separate risk module in the standard formula