The US has a 27% chance of being hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane – down from 39% a year ago, according to analysis by MS Amlin.
However, the re/insurer said today the industry should not be complacent. A Category 4 hurricane features maximum sustained wind of 130-156mph, while a Category 5 hurricane reaches catastrophic speeds of 157 mph or higher.
The fall in likelihood of US landfall this hurricane season – 1 June to 30 November – is partly driven by stronger hurricanes having less change of hitting the Gulf of Mexico, with the probability of Category 4 or 5 hurricanes going from 19% last year to 10% this year. Looking at Florida, the chance of Category 4 or 5 hurricane has fallen more modestly from 19% in 2025 to 14% this year.
Sam Phibbs, MS Amlin’s head of catastrophe research, said that while the risk is slightly lower, “it’s still far from negligible.”
He added: “It only takes one storm to turn a quiet season into a costly one for communities and insurers. While El Nino is expected to dampen hurricane activity, its influence is being partly offset by unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters, which are keeping conditions favourable for storms to form and intensify.”