9 July 2021

Euro 2020 final: actuarial experts forecast Italian victory over England

Italy is predicted to beat England in the Euro 2020 final this Sunday, based on analysis using stochastic modelling from actuarial consultancy and technology vendor Addactis.

The vendor provided the forecast for InsuranceERM after its software simulated 10m possible game outcomes based on overall offensive and defensive efficiency of each side, and teams they have played over the last three years.

Addactis said the probabilities of an Italian or English victory is 39% and 30% respectively. A draw is forecast at 30%, in which case the game would be decided by a penalty shootout.

The Brussels-headquartered company’s stochastic modelling software previously predicted Brazil would win the 2018 World Cup. Its actuaries simulated 5m possible scenarios through the application of a Markov chain Monte Carlo model.

France eventually won the 2018 World Cup, however, Addactis correctly predicted a Germany versus Argentina final in the 2014 tournament, and Germany as the winner.

Addactis’s Euro 2020 final forecast is in contrast to investment bank Goldman Sachs, which reportedly predicts England will win its first major football tournament in 55 years.

Goldman Sachs’ original pick, Belgium, was eliminated from the competition on 2 July.

The bank’s forecast is based on modelling the number of goals scored by each team using a large dataset of international football matches since 1980.

Phill Beach, head of Global Funded Solutions at Pacific Life Re, told InsuranceERM he predicts the final could result in a scoreless draw, which raises the spectre of a penalty shootout.

Beach said: “I expect it to a cagey match. There is always hope and we try to be optimistic as England fans, but we are often let down.” 


Scoreline probabilities for final of Euro 2020 championships. Source: Addactis


England     0 14,52% 15,25% 7,99% 2,79% 0,92%
1 12,84% 13,40% 7,08% 2,47% 0,83%
2 5,64% 5,80% 3,06% 1,09% 0,35%
3 1,67% 1,76% 0,90% 0,33% 0,10%
4 0,41% 0,46% 0,24% 0,08% 0,03%